During a Sunday panel discussion on NBC News, Danielle Pletka, a contributor and senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, expressed surprise when fellow contributor Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster, shared his belief that former President Donald Trump could potentially defeat Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race. The discussion revolved around recent polls indicating a tight race between Biden and most Republican candidates.
Pletka pointed out that both Biden and Trump would face challenges during their campaigns, highlighting that Biden couldn’t rely on a low-profile strategy like staying in his basement anymore. She also emphasized that even when voters were dissatisfied with both major political parties, they typically ended up choosing one of the two main candidates.
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Belcher introduced an interesting perspective, suggesting that an “X-factor” could come into play, reminiscent of the 2016 election. He proposed that a significant number of voters might opt for third-party candidates as a form of protest, considering both major candidates as the “lesser of two evils.” Belcher speculated that Trump could potentially win by capitalizing on this dissatisfaction and gaining support through subtraction – that is, by attracting voters who had previously chosen third-party candidates.
Belcher elaborated that many voters were currently disgruntled with the state of politics, leading to their exploration of alternative options.
Pletka was taken aback by Belcher’s assertion and sought clarification, asking if he truly believed Donald Trump had a chance of winning the 2024 election against Joe Biden. Belcher reiterated his point, emphasizing that if a situation similar to 2016 were to occur, with a small percentage of voters holding the balance in key states, Trump could secure victory. He cited Trump’s narrow win in Wisconsin in 2016, driven in part by former Obama voters opting for third-party candidates.