Former President Trump’s recent statement regarding his hopes for an economic crash within the next 12 months has drawn criticism from Democrats and raised eyebrows among political analysts. In an interview, Trump expressed his belief that the U.S. economy will experience a downturn and suggested that it should happen before he potentially takes office again in 2025. While Democrats condemn Trump’s remarks for being dismissive of the potential hardship that Americans would face in a recession, the impact of these comments on his campaign remains uncertain due to his ability to defy conventional political norms.
Gordon Gray, Vice President for Economic Policy at the American Action Forum, a right-leaning research nonprofit, explained that historically, candidates avoid discussing recessions as they are detrimental to people’s lives. They result in job losses, foreclosures, and long-lasting economic struggles for those affected. However, Gray highlights that Donald Trump is not a typical candidate and does not adhere to traditional political expectations. His ability to distance himself from norms and political forces allows him to make such statements without severe consequences.
The state of the economy and public perception of it will likely play a significant role in a potential rematch between President Biden and Trump. Trump views the economy as a success during his tenure, citing low inflation and gas prices before the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, Biden faced predictions of an impending recession when he assumed office. However, his administration has, so far, managed to achieve a soft landing with the economy, a success frequently highlighted by the White House. The Biden campaign hopes that voters will eventually credit the president for his economic agenda. On the other hand, Trump sees a potential economic crash as an opportunity to undermine Biden politically, taking an unprecedented approach given the implications of a weak economy on voters’ decisions.
Daniel Alpert, Managing Partner of investment firm Westwood Capital, suggests that Trump’s current concern is that the economy is actually in good condition. Trump’s popularity with the public hinges on their negative memories of inflation. As time passes, the impact of inflation diminishes, potentially putting him at a disadvantage against a candidate who oversaw a robust economy. In an interview, Trump referred to the economy as “fragile” and expressed his desire for a crash within the next year, expressing his aversion to being associated with President Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression.
It is worth noting that Joe Biden has frequently mentioned Trump’s track record on job creation, highlighting that Trump, along with Hoover, left office with fewer jobs than when they began their presidencies. Biden’s messaging emphasizes his commitment to improving the economy and contrasts himself with Trump. While Trump’s hope for an economic crash appears counterintuitive for a presidential candidate, it illustrates his unique approach to politics and how he operates outside of established norms.